They do things right. That’s not just winning baseball game, either. Obviously, that’s where it starts. In the last four seasons, the Cardinals have won 396 of those, postseason included. That’s 13 more than any other team in baseball, 29 more than any other National League team.
In the last 15 seasons, the Cardinals have been to the postseason 11 times. In that time, they’ve won six division championships, four NL pennants and two World Series. When the Cardinals and Giants played in the NLCS for the second time in three years last fall, it was a matchup of two franchises that might be the gold standard for all of baseball.
In terms of the ballpark experience and community involvement and creativity and innovation, the Cardinals take a backseat to no franchise in professional sports. That attitude begins with the owner, Bill DeWitt, Jr., but it permeates an entire organization. That’s why so many players will tell you their years with the Cardinals were the best of their career.
Is there a burden? Yes, there is. Players are held accountable by the media. And the St. Louis media has a high standard. That’s a result of the Cardinals having set the bar so high. If you’re a player or a manager, you have to be able to shut out the noise and do your job.
The Cardinals are again favored to win the NL Central. That would be their third straight and give them five straight seasons in the playoffs. They’re not without questions, especially among young players like Matt Adams and Kolten Wong. Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia are recovering from injuries. Is there enough offense? Is the bullpen stable enough?
On the other hand, the Cardinals have fewer questions than any other NL Central team. The Cubs are a hot pick because of all those kids. The Reds could be very good if they get their main guys back on the field. The Pirates are good enough to make a third straight playoff appearance.
So nothing is guaranteed. But with another Spring Training here, the Cardinals are as usual one of the organizations every other will be measured against.
There isn’t one clear favorite in the three American League divisions. Better yet, at least 13 of the 15 AL teams view making the playoffs as a reasonable goal for 2015.
This is the place to come to better understand baseball’s new competitive balance landscape. Expectations abound.
Let’s begin in the American League East. The Red Sox will begin Spring Training favored to make another worst-to-first run.
There’s also a case to be made for the Blue Jays and Rays. Only a knucklehead would count out the Orioles. As for that other AL East team…
The Yankees believe that landscape marked the end of a significant drought for their player development system with Dellin Betances, David Phelps, Shane Greene, Vidal Nuno, Adam Warren and Chase Whitley all contributing. Michael Pineda deserves to be on this list as well since he was acquired for Jesus Montero, then the pride of the Yankee farm system.
There’s more on the way: second baseman Rob Refsnyder, left-hander Jacob Lindgren, right-hander Jose Ramirez and outfielders Mason Williams, Tyler Austin and Ramon Flores.
Nothing is guaranteed, but this is a longer list of potentially big league-ready prospects than the Yankees have had awhile. And the point is a reminder that while the Yankees might be a logical pick for third, fourth or fifth in the AL East, it would be a huge mistake to overlook them.
The Tigers will be favored in the AL Central, but the Indians, Royals and White Sox are good enough to win. The Mariners and Angels may have separated themselves from the rest of the pack in the AL West, but the Rangers believe if they get a healthy and productive season from Prince Fielder, they’ve got a chance to be as good as any team in baseball.
And this is a reminder that it’s never been like this before in baseball. At least 24 teams have realistic expectations of getting to the postseason.
Last September 1st, 17 of baseball’s 30 teams were within 5 1/2 games of a postseason berth. In the last five seasons, 20 of 30 teams have played at least one postseason series, and 12 different franchises have been to the World Series the last 10 seasons.
Now that everyone has decided to play nice with one another, the Alex Rodriguez story circles back to where we were when we last saw him in uniform.
Does he have anything left in the tank?
Given that he’s 39 years old and hasn’t played in a Major League game in 505 days, this seems to be the most interesting part of his return to the Yankees.
He finished 2013 in a 3-for-39 slump. He hit .200 against left-handed pitching that season. He batted .120 in the 2012 postseason and didn’t start the final two games of the ALCS sweep by the Tigers. Since winning the AL MVP Award in 2007, his OPS has declined six straight years, to .771 in 2013.
If you wanted to make the case that this is a guy who is at the end of the road, that’s easy to do. On the other hand, he hasn’t been healthy. He has had an entire season to recover from hip surgery. Even if he shows enough in Spring Training to convince the Yankees he can contribute, it’ll be months before we know if his body can withstand the grind of a full season.
The Yankees have proceeded as if they don’t think he can help them. But it appears he’ll at least be in Spring Training. From the beginning, I couldn’t imagine he’d return to the Yankees after all that had happened. At the moment, though, it appears he’ll be in Spring Training, and if the two sides have gone this far down the road, the Yankees seemingly haven’t closed the door.
He’ll attract a lot of media, but he’s not going to be a distraction. He’s just not. One of the things that has become apparent in recent seasons is that Yankees manager Joe Girardi is really good at his job. Some men have the ability to lead other men, and Girardi is one of these.
He has been able to keep the noise out in the hallway and make the clubhouse environment as normal as is ever possible around the Yankees. General Manager Brian Cashman has done a terrific job of getting the right kind of people: Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Chase Headley, etc.
These guys are consummate professionals in terms of preparation, play, media relations, etc. So while A-Rod will be a story to watch during Spring Training, he won’t interrupt the larger goal, that is, the turning of a page and moving into a post-Jeter, post-Rivera world.
The Yankees are a popular choice to finish fourth in the AL East, behind the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays. Their list of unknowns is long: age, health, rotation, second base, shortstop. If Sabathia is healthy and productive, if Masahiro Tanaka’s elbow is sound and if the second base/shortstop situation gets figured out, the Yankees are in good shape.
Best of all, their farm system is in better shape than it has been in years, and so we will hear the names of second baseman Rob Refsnyder, right-hander Luis Severino, left-hander Jacob Lindgren, right-hander Jose Ramirez and others.
Despite the lack of a splashy off-season move, it’s easy to project the Yankees into the postseason. But theirs is a high-wire act. So while A-Rod will get plenty of attention in Spring Training, a larger picture of the franchise will begin to emerge.
The Rockies and Diamondbacks may end up deciding how many NL West teams make the postseason. If they’re bad teams, the division would have a decent shot at getting three teams into the playoffs. That’s no sure thing, especially given how much pitching the Diamondbacks have accumulated.
Also, if Mark Trumbo is healthy and Yasmany Tomas is the real deal, the Diamondbacks would be headed in the right direction, and that would be bad news for those Wild Card berths. On the other hand, the NL Central has five solid teams fighting it out, and that competitive balance is going to take its toll on the standings.
Meanwhile, in the NL East, the Phillies and Braves might end up being worse than the Diamondbacks and Rockies. Bud Selig’s legacy is that he reshaped the landscape to give every team a chance to compete. That reshaping has given us some chaotic finishes the last few seasons, but it has made preseason forecast more meaningless than usual.
The Dodgers will probably still be the NL West favorites despite San Diego’s signing of James Shields and the earlier acquisitions of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Derek Norris, Brandon Morrow, Clint Barmes and Josh Johnson. I like typing all those names just to remind myself what an amazing few months new Padres GM A.J. Preller has had.
The Dodgers aren’t without questions. But the top of the rotation is so strong and the defense so much improved that it’s almost impossible to pick against them. It was fascinating watching new President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman remake a club that won 94 games.
He did it, though, and beautifully, acquiring Jimmy Rollins to play short and Howie Kendrick to play second and Brandon McCarthy to slip into the rotation behind Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-jin Ryu. If rookie center fielder Joc Pederson is the real deal and if Carl Crawford stays healthy, the Dodgers may be the best team in the game, an exciting, interesting little club that does everything at a high level.
There’s a case to be made for either the Giants or Padres, but both those clubs have some questions. For instance:
- Will the Giants have enough offense in the wake of Pablo Sandoval’s departure? They probably need full and productive seasons from Brandon Belt and Angel Pagan. They need Joe Panik to continue to progress. And they need Casey McGehee and Nori Aoki to be productive.
- The Giants have a deep rotation, but they’re counting on Matt Cain again being Matt Cain and Tim Hudson spinning his magic one more time. These aren’t huge questions, and given that GM Brian Sabean has a knack for filling holes and that manager Bruce Bochy makes it all work and that the core of players are tough, resilient and winners, the Giants are again in a good place.
- The Padres need Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross and Ian Kennedy to combine for close to 100 starts. If that happens, the Padres would have a chance to win the division. Offensively, the questions are whether Wil Myers and Will Middlebrooks will bounce back from tough seasons. If you look at the Padres from a certain angle, you see a team capable of winning 95 games. But there’s the potential for disappointment, too.
When James Shields pitched poorly in the 2014 postseason, some people ridiculed his nickname: Big Game James. To me, they’re missing a larger point. He has not pitched well in the postseason, compiling a 5.46 ERA in 11 appearances spread over four seasons. He certainly didn’t pitch well last October, pitching to a 6.12 ERA in five appearances. On the other hand, there ought to be some context here.
He helped the Rays get to the postseason three times and the Royals once. Along the way, he pitched big game after big game. He has made 134 starts the last four seasons and had a 3.17 ERA. Do you think there was a big game or two along the way?
For instance, he allowed three earned runs in 6 1/3 innings to beat the White Sox to win the first postseason game the Rays ever played. A few weeks after that, he pitched 5 2/3 shutout innings to win Game 2 of the 2008 World Series. That one might have qualified as a big game.
Again, though, his postseason track record isn’t all that great, and he has to live with those performances the same way plenty of others do, too. But the larger body of work is impressive. He’s good for 220 innings and 200 strikeouts. He’s incredibly competitive and prides himself on consistently giving his team a chance to win.
This is a big day for the Padres. Shields deepens the rotation, adds leadership and will turn this new collection of players into a cohesive unit.
Was it wise to give a 33-year-old pitcher approaching his 2,000th inning a four-year contract? That’s an interesting question. The Padres might just see it as an investment.
What if they make the postseason the next two seasons? What if they end up playing deep into October in one of those seasons and that they ignite interest in the team around Southern California? What’s that energy worth to a team? Shields might help create a new generation of baseball fans in San Diego.
This is about more than just one move. This is about reshaping a franchise, both on the field and in the hearts and minds of fans. This might be the off-season that sparked an exciting era of Padres of baseball. There are no guarantees. Baseball’s landscape is closer and more competitive than it has ever been. The Giants and Dodgers are really good. Even the competition for one of the two NL Wild Card berths is going to be fierce.
But the Padres are in the conversation, and Big Game James is another brick in that wall.
James Shields has been a 223-inning workhorse for 9 years, and that probably has hurt him in free agency.
Don’t misunderstand why James Shields is still unsigned. Every team would love to have him. They appreciate how good he has been during nine full big league seasons. Beyond that, those teams that have done their homework have come to understand he’s also a great leader with a relentless work ethic that rubs off on other players.
The Rays and Royals will tell you that he played a role in creating a winning culture on their teams. He did it with his own personal expectations and with the way he performed. He did it by being a good teammate and by emphasizing that the bottom line was what mattered.
So why is he still a free agent with the final countdown to Spring Training about to begin? That’s simple. The marketplace can be a cold, cruel world. It’s where you find out if you’re worth what you thought you’d be worth. Again, every team would love to have Shields. The only question is cost, and so far no team has made an offer that has compelled Shields to sign.
In an odd twist, his greatest strength probably has negatively impacted his free agency. In the last nine seasons, he leads the majors with 1,785.2 innings. Only Justin Verlander has started more games in that time. Only Justin Verlander has faced more hitters or thrown more pitches.
Shields is also 33 years old, and so it’s reasonable to wonder how long he can continue to perform at a high level. There is no reason to think he’s in decline. According to fangraphs.com, his fastball averaged a career-high 92 .4 mph last season. His strikeout rate was down slightly, but so was his walk rate.
What has almost certainly happened in recent days is that the market has been reset. He’s probably going to end up with fewer years and dollars than he originally thought. He’s going to make a pile of money, but possibly not as much as he first thought. Again, though, there’s every reason to think he can continue to pitch at a high level.
As Randy Johnson told reporters one spring, “If you guys keep writing me off every year, one of these years you’ll be right.” That’s how it is with James Shields. He will not pitch forever. But there’s every reason to think he’s going to make some team very, very happy about their decision to sign him.
Angels GM Jerry Dipoto has had himself a very nice off-season, one in which he positioned his team both to win in 2015 and also to sustain the winning in the years ahead. He’ll also begin the season with payroll flexibility to make more additions. So while the Angels didn’t make a lot of huge headlines, they did put themselves in a good place going forward.
In looking at the 2015 Angels, it’s about Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson and Josh Hamilton. It’s about Albert Pujols staying healthy and Garrett Richards and Matt Shoemaker continuing the progress they made in 2014. When a team won 98 times the year before, goals and expectations are high.
The Angels and Mariners will be almost unanimous picks to finish first and second (in some order) in the AL West. In keeping his team competitive, DiPoto also positioned them for the years ahead. He added two highly touted young starting pitchers in Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano. He added a young third baseman in Kyle Kubitza and set up a nice little spring competition for the second base man with Josh Rutledge, Grant Green, Johnny Giovotella and Taylor Featherstone. He also acquired an everyday designated hitter in Matt Joyce.
It’s interesting to farm system assessment. In recent years, the Angels have been near the bottom. But in that time, they’ve gotten a steady stream of contributions from their minor leagues, from Mike Trout and Garrett Richards to Matt Shoemaker, Cam Bedrosian and Kole Calhoun.
As Dipoto looked ahead, though, he saw a thin system. But Tropeano and Heaney provide depth and an eventual transition with C.J. Wilson and Weaver unsigned after 2016. And with third baseman David Freese entering the final year of his contract, Kubitza could provide a smooth transition there as well.
Astros manager Bo Porter used his post-game news conference on Wednesday to lobby for his ace left-hander, Dallas Keuchel, to be part of the American League All-Star team.
Come on, Bo, give us something harder. Challenge us, Bo. How about asking for hot summers and big mosquitos in Houston? Hey, that’s a good one, Bo. Good barbecue in Austin? There you go, Bo.
Or how about asking Keuchel to show us how he can still call the Hogs five years after he pitched his last game for the University of Arkansas? Here’s betting he can still do it.
That’s because Dallas Keuchel is about as close to a slam dunk as the American League All-Stars will have this summer. There’s just no way Red Sox manager John Farrell can draw up his roster without inviting Keuchel.
And that would be a kick in the pants on so many levels.
One of the best things about baseball’s Mid-Summer Classic are the stories like this. Guys who’ve had to fight and claw for everything they’ve gotten. Guys who’ve dealt with some failure and who simply kept working and kept figuring things out. Guys who believed in themselves when plenty of others had to be a bit shaky.
That’s Dallas Keuchel.
First, he may be the American League’s best starting pitcher in 2014. At the very least, he’s on the short list.
He’s No. 1 in Wins Above Replacement among AL pitchers, according to BaseballReference.com. His WHIP is a dazzling 0.99, third-best in the AL, behind only Masahiro Tanaka (0.94) and Scott Kazmir (0.98).
His name is dotted across the leader board in other places as well: fifth in ERA (2.38), fifth in batting average (.220), eighth in innings (90 2/3).
He has been a huge part of the renaissance of the Astros. George Springer and Jon Singleton are the faces of the franchise because they represent the beginning of a new era for the club.
But the Astros are being led by their starting pitching. They’ve been really good lately, winning 13 of 18.
But they’ve been competitive for awhile. Since April 21–and this is no small sample size–they’re 25-23. In that time, their rotation is 20-17 with a 3.66 ERA. Only the A’s and Angels have gotten better starting pitching int his stretch.
So it’s not just Keuchel. It’s Collin McHugh and Jarred Cosart and Scott Feldman and others. Slowly, methodically, the Astros are getting it right.
Back to Keuchel.
He began this season having started 38 big league games. He had a 9-18 record, a 5.20 ERA and a 1.540 WHIP.
Keuchel, 26, probably is going to look back and see those 38 starts, especially the 22 he got last season, as huge in his development.
Because the Astros didn’t have better alternatives, they kept running him out there. And like a lot of other guys, he gradually began to figure things out.
He’s exactly the kind of guy Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow hoped to find as he rebuilt the franchise. In constantly shuffling the roster, Luhnow got a good look at all the talent in the organization–and plenty from outside the organization.
As Porter would say, “We give guys a shot. If it doesn’t work out, we move on to the next guy.”
The Astros were not burdened by contracts or expectations. They simply ran what amounted to a tryout camp.
With this freedom, Keuchel figured himself out. He dropped a bad curveball and added what has become a very good slider.
He polished his change-up and got better command of his fastball. As he had more success–as the slider began to get swings and misses–his change-up became better, too.
Suddenly, he was taking a very impressive arsenal to the mound. In keeping the ball down, he’s getting a ton of ground balls. He’s missing bats and throwing strikes. In short, he’s the real deal.
When he allowed the Diamondbacks one run in eight innings on Wednesday, they paid him the ultimate compliment. They said he was no longer a surprise. They said they knew what to expect, but that he simply had executed his game plan, never giving them a chance.
Keuchel is a reminder for all of us that young players require patience, that they don’t all advance at the same speed and that, in the end, they don’t all figure it out. Keuchel has figured it out dramatically and emphatically.
Only Mark Buehrle and Tanaka have more quality starts this season. The Astros are 9-4 in Keuchel’s 13 starts. His is a victory for tenacity and confidence. His is also a victory for an entire organization, for all the people who worked with him and encouraged him since he was the 221st player taken in the 2009 draft.
He’s the kind of guy that could use the All-Star Game’s stage to tell his story, to talk of perseverance and hard work. Isn’t that what the All-Star Game is all about? He’s also deserving of the honor. Slam-dunk deserving.
The Astros aren’t winning just because of George Springer. GM Jeff Luhnow has constructed an airtight bullpen. Dallas Keuchel has led a solid string of starts by the rotation. Jose Altuve is playing his way right on to the American League All-Star Team. Dexter Fowler has been very good as well.
Successful teams are living, breathing organisms. It’s not one thing. It’s a hundred. When things are clicking the way they are with the Astros right now, it feels like the club will never lose again.
After all the losing in recent years, a six-game winning streak feels like 20. Almost everyone–club employees, security guards, coaches–had an extra spring in their step at Minute Maid Park on Thursday. Winning does that to an organization.
And while Altuve has been tremendous and Fowler and Keuchel and others have done their jobs well, everything begins with Springer, who homered for the seventh time in seven games in a 3-1 victory over the Orioles.
He does more than make the Astros a better team. Actually, he makes every player better. He impacts the guys in front of him, and the guys behind him as well. He’s just 24 years old and has had fewer than 200 at-bats. There’ll be some tough days ahead.
But that’s just the beginning. He’s a guy Bo Porter can build his lineup around. He’s also the guy Jim Crane can construct his franchise around.
Springer is smart and personable and charismatic. Springer exudes charm. He’s also athletic and has a flair in how he does almost everything.
Isn’t it amazing how much difference one guy can make? Not just on the field, either. Fans look at the club differently. Players suddenly have a little extra spring in their step. Do you think Bo Porter might be sleeping a bit better. Oh, you betcha.
When Jim Crane bought the Astros in 2011, he said he was going to do it this way. He was going to give Luhnow the freedom to tear it down and built it back up. In doing so, there would be some serious short-term suffering. Once the Minor League system was rebuilt, though, the Astros might have something that would last.
Maybe we’re closing in on that moment. The Astros are 14-13 this month. First baseman Jonathan Singleton, who has 14 home runs at Triple-A, is in the on-beck circle. Carlos Correa and Mark Appel could be competing for jobs next spring.
Two years ago when the Orioles made their first playoff appearance in 15 years, they used 52 players. They could do this because they had so few contract obligations. Buck Showalter and Dan Duquette treated their team like it was a 50-man roster, shuffling players here and there.
In doing so, they had the freedom to keep searching for the right combination. That’s how it has been with the Astros the last few years. Luhnow has shuffled players on and off his roster at all, looking for guys good enough to stick around when the club got good again.
How good are they? Who knows?
All that’s clear is that there has been progress made, and that the club Porter is running on the field at Minute Maid Park these days is both entertaining and competitive.
Let me say right up front that Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow and his staff don’t need me defending what they’re doing or how they’re doing it. Lord knows, they can do their own heavy lifting.
That’s also the beauty of this thing. Ultimately, they’ll be judged on how many games they win. Evaluations couldn’t be simpler. Jeff knows and accepts this.
He was hired by Astros owner Jim Crane to rebuild the Astros. This he is doing. He’s also doing it exactly the way he said he would do it. If things work out as planned, there’ll be a steady supply of talent flowing onto the big league roster for the foreseeable future.
At the moment, things are changing and quickly. Luhnow has shuffled the roster freely these last few years in search of players good enough to stick around after the Astros have turned a corner.
The Astros may not be far from turning that corner. They’re 13-13 in May with George Springer, Jose Altuve, Dexter Fowler, Dallas Keuchel, Chad Qualls, Matt Dominguez and others leading the way.
At the moment, their bullpen is as good as any in baseball, and Springer, Altuve, etc., have ignited the offense. Likewise, the rotation has been solid.
Will there be more bumps in the road? Of course there will. That’s part of the deal.
Baseball’s seasons last for six months, and along the way, every weakness—and every strength—is exposed.
There was a time when it was impossible to see a light at the end of the tunnel. Now, though, Springer symbolizes what may be ahead.
By Opening Day 2015, the Astros could have Carlos Correa at shortstop, Jon Singleton at first and Mark Appel in the rotation.
There’s other talent coming as well, including the No. 1 overall pick in next week’s draft. Enjoy that one, fellas.
The Astros are the first franchise to pick first three straight years, but they’re not likely to have it again for a long, long time. At least that’s the plan.
Anyway, the Houston Chronicle published a story that contained comments critical of Luhnow and his staff regarding their use of advanced analytics.
Based on an assortment of quotes, some of them anonymous, Luhnow is guilty of seeing players as numbers rather than people. In other words, he seems more concerned with constructing a winning team than fretting about his players’ feelings. I’m simplifying the argument, but you get the picture.
Here’s my problem with the criticism. In the end, advanced analytics is about gathering as much information about players as possible and then getting as many good players as you can afford or acquire based on that information. This is what baseball teams have done since the beginning. Numbers have always been important. Numbers were less sophisticated 50 years ago, but they were nevertheless important.
Back then, numbers could not evaluate base running, defense, arm strength and a dozen other little things. Now, there are numbers that attempt to do that. Are they infallible? They are not. Are they insightful? They absolutely are.
Some people in baseball think numbers have devalued the importance of a manager. Wrong. If a manager is smart, he’ll devour the information his front office supplies in terms of defensive alignments, pitching match ups, lineups, etc. What can’t be replaced is the human touch.
Joe Maddon isn’t the best manager in baseball because his front office supplies him with the most cutting edge data. That data helps Maddon do his job, but he’s the best there is because of the human touch he has with players. He has the ability to get players to buy into the whole program.
Sometimes that means batting first, fifth or ninth. Sometimes it means not playing at all. But Maddon’s simple philosophy is that all we’re trying to do is what’s best for the Rays. Because he’s so honest and so decent and so instantly likable, his players believe in him.
He’s a huge reason the Rays are now one of the places players from 29 other teams want to play. Oakland is like that, too, for many of the same reasons. It’s all about the environment.
Okay, back to the numbers. Branch Rickey used ‘em. Pat Gillick used ‘em. Numbers were different back then and less complicated than the ones Billy Beane, Brian Sabean and Andrew Friedman use now, but they were part of the decision-making process.
Roster building is as much an art as a science, so there are considerations to clubhouse atmosphere and getting along and all that. But numbers were a big factor in decisions.
Rickey was cold, calculating and brilliant. He did what was best for the club he was running at the time.
Did he hurt some feelings along the way? He did.
If any of these people think Luhnow is cold, they should go talk to the players who were forced to go in and negotiate a new contract with Rickey.
At times, they’d go in expecting a raise and leave thankful he was going to let them back on the team another year.
In other words, he did what he thought was right for winning as many games as possible. That was his one and only consideration.
I don’t know that I’d want a general manager to think another way. Would you want a GM who kept a player because he was a nice guy? Don’t players collect all the available data when they negotiate a new deal?
It’s just that with analytics there are more and better ways to evaluate players, managers, etc., than ever before. Virtually every team has an analytics department because they at least want to hear those opinions. If they don’t avail themselves of every scrap of information, they’re unlikely to have their jobs for very long.
Nor should they.
As Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey said a couple of years ago, “We don’t know yet if this deal will work in basketball. But it’s been proven in baseball. If a GM doesn’t use it, he’s not going to have his job for very long.”
A couple of weeks later, Morey had a guest on draft night: Rays GM Andrew Friedman.
He’s among the best in his sport, and he stopped by to see if Morey’s NBA evaluations might offer him something he could use to make the Rays better. That’s what the good ones do. They look and listen. They’re curious. They also at times have to make decisions based on numbers rather than personal feelings.
This same thing happens in every industry. Robert McNamara used all the data he could find when he ran Ford and the Pentagon.
There’s a reason Beane doesn’t travel with the A’s or allow himself to get too close to his players. He wants to be able to make the best assessment of what’s right for the A’s.
If he hung around the clubhouse and made friends, there surely would come a time when his personal feelings for a player would intersect with what’s best for the team.
Is this cold?
Of course, it is. That’s why they keep score. That’s why they evaluate people like him by how many games they win.
When do teams get into trouble? Answer: When they allow personal feelings to distort the decision-making process.
Baseball’s best organizations assign a value to each player. And if somewhere down the road that means walking away from that player, so be it.
That’s what the Cardinals did with Albert Pujols, the Yankees with Robinson Cano and the Rangers with Josh Hamilton.
Each of us can decide whether they made the right decision. Clubs get into trouble when they allow emotion—or talk radio—to dictate decisions.
No club ever loved a player more than the Cardinals loved Albert Pujols. But in the broad view of winning, they believed they would have a competitive team—and more flexibility—by not making a $254-million commitment.
Advanced analytics—Moneyball—has changed baseball in ways we’re all trying to grasp. For one obvious thing, standings are no longer dictated by payroll size.
Smarts count, too, more than ever before. In that way, Beane has changed the game forever.
If there’s a place in Cooperstown for people who’ve changed baseball in dramatic, positive and earth-shaking ways, Beane will someday get his plaque.
There’s data on everything from the impact of base running to outfield throws to defensive positioning to how to line up hitters in the batting order. You can argue about whether you agree with the assessment. You can choose to believe that the past does not predict the future. In fact, there are people who do exactly that.
One analyst said a team should always bat his best hitter second or fourth, not third, as has been previously thought. In fact, he said that the No. 3 spot in the order was for the fourth- or fifth-best hitter.
His manager isn’t quite onboard with that advice, but he’s working to get there. Incidentally, this team is in first place and has championship hardware. How’s that for a hint?
There’s another word for analytics: facts.
In the end, that’s what we’re talking about. If Luhnow’s staff notices opposing hitters are batting .088 on Collin McHugh’s curveball, isn’t that information that should be passed to the coaching staff?
THAT’S what analytics is all about. It’s about positioning, about exploiting strengths and attacking weaknesses.
Just because it’s a former NASA employee running the math models is irrelevant.
In fact, Moneyball has changed dramatically since the book was published in 2004. Every team is in an arms race to develop better ways of doing things.
One of the challenges Luhnow has wrestled with is how much information to pass on to the players. He wants the players and coaches to have the best available information, but he doesn’t want to overload them, either.
For instance, the Houston Rockets do a 50-page (or so) scouting report on each game. But the cover page is a summary, and for most of the players, that’s what they’ll consume.
(Shane Battier read all 50 pages. He sometimes would tell an opposing player where he’s supposed to go on a certain play. He said that was an old Coach K. trick to get in an opponent’s head. But I digress.)
As for the rest, that’s up to Kevin McHale and his staff to decide how much they want. If he chooses to know where Chandler Parsons should be getting the ball on the perimeter based on where he’s had the most success, it’s available. If he doesn’t, if he wants to follow his gut, go for it, big fella.
There was a baseball general manager who asked his manager about a certain decision he’d made regarding that night’s lineup.
The manager said he liked the matchup of right-handed power hitting versus right-handed power pitching. He knew it gave his team an advantage.
“Smart,” the general manager said, then added, “Did you look it up?”
No, he hadn’t.
The general manager went through his team’s data bank and found that everything the manager had said was factually wrong.
The GM was steamed. He told the manager that when NASA is bringing the shuttle back, it doesn’t push, say, the green button on a hunch.
Rather, it collects as much data as it can collect and makes a decision based on facts.
In the end, that’s what advanced analytics is all about. In the end, it IS about the numbers.
But it always has been.
For good teams, that never changes.
It’s that way for players, too. They don’t make salary requests in a vacuum. They collect information to support their case. They do comparables. In other words, they’re doing exactly what teams do.
In this way, the baseball world has changed. The Astros are all in, and in the end, it’s the standings that are likely to tell us whether they were right or wrong. Luhnow has had the freedom to bring players in and out, to keep trying combinations and to look at all his various theories.
This may be the end of the beginning, but it’s still just a beginning. If Luhnow is correct about the people he has hired, the Astros are going to keep finding newer and smarter ways to make decisions. I’m guessing these last two-plus years have been an amazingly fun ride for him.
He has had the kind of opportunity that every baseball man dreams of having. He has long had certain ways he thought things should be done, and Crane appears to have allowed him to enact them.
Yes, numbers drive many of the decisions. On the other hand, numbers have always driven most baseball decisions. It’s just that the numbers are different now.
Luhnow got the job in Houston because he performed brilliantly in St. Louis. At the moment, he appears to be doing the same in Houston.